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3:49pm on Tuesday, 5th April, 2011:

Damned Statistics


I've mentioned in recent weeks that I've been buying a few old packs of playing cards off eBay.

The way I use eBay, I put in a bid that represents the maximum amount I'm willing to pay, and then if someone else outbids me, OK, that's that. I'm not going to put in a higher bid, because I alreayd bid the maximum I'm going to pay.

This approach means I don't tend to win much. Sometimes, other people are simply willing to pay more than I am; other times, they put in a bid but if mine then automatically comes back and exceeds it they get all competitive and put in another one. I can put in 8 bids and win none. One week, I put in 13 and won one.

Last week, I put in 9 bids at the same amounts I normally do, and won 8 of them. I'm now looking at several near-identical Dondorf Swiss patience decks, plus an old French deck made up out of several other decks that have the same pattern on the back but collectively missing (I suspect for reasons of irony) the Jack of Spades.

9 bids, 8 wins.

Damned statistics...

Referenced by Something Odd.

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Copyright © 2011 Richard Bartle (richard@mud.co.uk).