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8:47am on Tuesday, 23rd June, 2026:

Shiny

Weird

Marks & Spencer have recently been giving out stickers for players of national football teams. You get one pack for every £20 you spend.

We don't go to M&S very often, but when we did a week or so ago, these are the players we got in our sticker pack:



There are fifty stickers per collection. Not all of them feature players (some are managers, some are emblems, some are "legends"), but my four did.

You will notice that the sticker for Jude Bellingham looks a little different to the others. This is because his is shiny, and that scanned badly. Shiny stickers are usually rare in collectible card sets, so I was interested to know just how rare he might be.

It turns out that there's one shiny guaranteed per pack, but there are only seven cards that are ever shiny. My chance of getting a shiny Jude Bellingham was therefore one in seven, or just over 14%..

What about a non-shiny Jude Bellingham? It turns out there aren't any. The fifty different stickers includes the shinies (or "shinnies", as the M&S web site calls them).

Hmm, so what's the chance of getting any particular other player, say Leah Williamson, the England women's captain?

There aren't supposed to be any duplicate stickers in each pack of four, and there are 43 non-shiny stickers, so the chance of getting Leah Williamson is 3/43, which is just under 7%.

The chance of getting a particular shiny is therefore just over twice as much as the chance of getting a particular non-shiny.

That's not how these things are supposed to work!

Adam Wharton has played for England only four times, three of which were as a substitute, and is not part of the World Cup squad.




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